baseballAnother season gone and another World Series about to start
While it seems to get easier to hit 500 Home Runs, it seems to get harder to win 300.
So, what will it take to get to 300 wins?
What follows is a comprehensive and fun analysis…
I’m gonna use Roger Clemens, Tom Seaver, and Greg Maddux as the basis for winning 300 games for future pitchers. Clemens and Maddux worked exclusively in a 5 man rotations while Seaver worked mostly in a 5 man rotations with several early years spent in 4 man rotations. Why? Because they are/were the best 3 pitchers of the last 50 years.
I think the findings were very eye-opening:
| AGE | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 |
| Maddux | 2 | 8 | 26 | 45 | 60 | 75 | 95 | 115 | 131 | 150 | 165 | 184 | 202 | 221 | 240 | 257 | 273 | 289 | 305 | 318 | |||
| Clemens | 0 | 9 | 16 | 40 | 60 | 78 | 95 | 116 | 134 | 152 | 163 | 172 | 182 | 192 | 213 | 233 | 247 | 260 | 280 | 293 | 310 | 328 | 341 |
| Seaver | 0 | 0 | 16 | 32 | 57 | 75 | 95 | 116 | 135 | 146 | 168 | 182 | 203 | 219 | 235 | 245 | 259 | 264 | 273 | 288 | 304 | 311 |
Seaver’s, Clemens’, and Maddux’s numbers from the age of 24 thru 30 are almost identical (they are identical at 26 years old). I have highlighted this portion.
Starting at 31, Maddux pulls far ahead of Clemens and at age 35 pulls far ahead of Seaver. At the end of this season Maddux is over 20 games ahead of Clemens and 30 over Seaver at 38 years old.
As amazing as Clemens’ career has been (he just became the winning-est pitcher since World War II), it is mind numbing to think that Maddux reached 300 wins 2 years ahead of him.
To judge whether some future pitcher will attain 300 wins here are some questions I asked: Will they all have to have 95 wins by the age of 26 or even 150 by 29?
Does someone even need 200 by the time they are 34 to have a shot?
But there is a flaw in the study. The error anyone can make is trying to compare future 300 game winners with Seaver, Clemens and Maddux. I had taken the 3 best young pitchers of the last 50 years. Tom, Roger and Greg achieved 150 wins before age 30. That’s an amazing pace to set. And it maybe unreasonable to compare anyone to these three.
So let’s explore the other 300 winners.
Here are 5 other 300 winners who pitched in a 4 man and a 5 man rotations. Gaylord Perry, Phil Niekro, Steve Carlton, Don Sutton and Nolan Ryan.
I was thinking about leaving Perry and Niekro off for obvious reasons but included them instead. All data will be needed to determine if 300 wins is still achievable.
AGE 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Carlton 0 3 17 30 47 57 77 104 117 133 148 168 191 207 225 249 262 285 300 313 314 318 319 323 328 329 Sutton 12 23 34 51 66 83 102 120 139 155 176 190 205 217 230 241 258 266 280 295 310 321 324 Ryan 6 12 19 29 48 69 91 105 122 141 151 167 178 189 205 219 231 241 253 261 273 289 302 314 319 324 No Snaps - Let's cheer each other up
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